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Persistent Overoptimism Three Ways: Truckers, Fed Economists, Manufacturers

MishTalk

Of course, there is also persistent overoptimism about earnings growth and stock market expectations. In November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee began releasing projections for real GDP growth four times per year in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The track record on recessions is perfect.

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Kodak’s Downfall Wasn’t About Technology

Harvard Business

Today, the term increasingly serves as a corporate bogeyman that warns executives of the need to stand up and respond when disruptive developments encroach on their market. Once one of the most powerful companies in the world, today the company has a market capitalization of less than $1 billion. Why did this happen? It was so close.

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Why GE’s Jeff Immelt Lost His Job: Disruption and Activist Investors

Harvard Business

During Immelt’s tenure, GE’s stock market value fell by about half. So what happened? Are lean innovation and the startup way a failure in large companies? In fact, what happened is activist investors. Its stock is trading where it was 20 years ago. In 2015 Trian Partners, an activist investor, bought $2.5 of the company.

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Ritholtz on Gold and on.

MishTalk

Minyanville Business and Market News. Balanced Budget Ammendment Sign the Balanced Budget Petition. China Financial Markets. Market Oracle. Market Ticker. Real Clear Markets. Ritholtz on Gold and on Making Predictions; How Secular Bull Markets End; Winning vs. Investing. Sitka Pacific.

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Shockingly Bad Fiscal Health of Chicago (and the Financial Engineering Chicago Uses to Hide that Fact)

MishTalk

trillion muni market had puzzled at the true identity of Bond Girl, Hector Negroni, co-founder of New York-based investing firm Fundamental Credit Opportunities, said in a telephone interview. “ Rank-and-file officers rejected a city contract offer in 2001, but an arbitrator ruled in favor of the city’s wage proposal a year later.

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Fed Study Shows "Persistent Fed Overoptimism about Economic Growth"; What Will They Do About It?

MishTalk

Since 2007, Federal Open Market Committee participants have been persistently too optimistic about future U.S. In a cross-country study of private-sector forecasts from 1989 to 1998, Loungani (2001) finds that “ the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished. ” economic growth. This is a general statement.

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