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Persistent Overoptimism Three Ways: Truckers, Fed Economists, Manufacturers

MishTalk

Sales of Class 8 heavy trucks are on pace for one of the best years in history - around 260,000 units in North America. Explaining the Persistent Overoptimism In a cross-country study of private-sector forecasts from 1989 to 1998, Loungani (2001) finds that “the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.”

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Why GE’s Jeff Immelt Lost His Job: Disruption and Activist Investors

Harvard Business

With refrains of “unlock hidden value” and “increase shareholder value,” and powered by over $120 billion in assets , activist investors like Trian look for companies like GE (or Procter & Gamble) whose share price is underperforming relative to its peers (or that have large amounts of cash on their balance sheets).

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Shockingly Bad Fiscal Health of Chicago (and the Financial Engineering Chicago Uses to Hide that Fact)

MishTalk

Among other things, she handles the structuring and sale of bonds for schools across the state. Rank-and-file officers rejected a city contract offer in 2001, but an arbitrator ruled in favor of the city’s wage proposal a year later. It is not a balance sheet test, but a cash flow test.