Persistent Overoptimism Three Ways: Truckers, Fed Economists, Manufacturers
MishTalk
NOVEMBER 20, 2015
Sales of Class 8 heavy trucks are on pace for one of the best years in history - around 260,000 units in North America. Explaining the Persistent Overoptimism In a cross-country study of private-sector forecasts from 1989 to 1998, Loungani (2001) finds that “the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.”
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