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In addition to holding its benchmark rate at 0.25%, the ECB also left the rate it pays on bank deposits unchanged at zero. The ECB balancesheet has plummeted to 23pc of eurozone GDP from a peak of 32pc in July 2012. Just like 2007, very few people even recognize bubble exist. The question is - is there deflation?
This share was higher than during the pre-crisis period from 2005 to mid-2007. Historical evidence shows that this rarely happens following a balancesheet recession. In the syndicated loan market, for instance, credit granted to lower-rated leveraged borrowers (leveraged loans) exceeded 40% of new signings for much of 2013.
The next bust will be unlike any other, because the Fed and other centrals banks around the world have taken on all this leverage that was out there and put it on their balancesheets. We produced pretty good numbers, but they’re way behind the benchmark. This bubble is in a rare class with 1929, 2000, and 2007.
Had I suggested in 2007 that the Fed balancesheet expansion of $75 billion a month would have been considered "tightening" people would have thought I was nuts. Given there shouldn''t be a Fed in the first place, it would be more accurate to state " Yellen and Summers are uniquely unqualified for the job ". Here we are.
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