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Personal credit scores like FICO consider a combination of metrics such as payment history, current level of indebtedness, and types of credit used by potential small business borrowers. And early reports from the architects of these newer algorithms caution how long it takes to thoughtfully incorporate new metrics into the models.
After all, “short-termism” does not correspond to any single quantifiable metric. Our belief is that the earnings of long-term companies will rely less on accounting decisions and more on underlying cashflow than other companies. With this metric, the gap between long-term companies and the rest is even bigger.
The fact that profits as a share of GDP are more than 70% above their historical norm should immediately raise a question as to whether current year earnings or next year’s projected “forward earnings” should be used as a sufficient statistic for long-term cashflows and equity market valuation without any further reflection.
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