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In the past, a community bank would have a relationship with the businesses on Main Street, and when it came time for a loan, there would be a wealth of informal information to augment the loan application. And they are allowing new sources of capital such as peer-to-peer lending to replace traditional bank capital.
There are a couple of reasons for this: Asset managers can see cashflow and earnings fluctuate wildly with markets. This will have a pronounced effect on leverage and coverage metrics. Asset managers like to have flexibility via risk management and speculative solutions provided by the trading floors of investment banks.
Since then, we interviewed several chief financial officers (CFOs) of leading technology companies and senior analysts of investment banks who follow technology companies. Business students are taught to value a company based on the discounted amounts of future cashflows or earnings.
One of the key examples Lewis highlights in his book was the practice among large investment banks of creating and selling complex financial products known as mortgage-backed securities. Investment banks made huge profits along the way, and often knew that these securities were overvalued and going to fail.
In a follow up HBR article , we interviewed several chief financial officers (CFOs) of leading technology companies and senior analysts of investment banks and distilled seven key insights from those discussions. The level and trend of a company’s top-line metric is an advance indicator of the success of its business model.
The fact that profits as a share of GDP are more than 70% above their historical norm should immediately raise a question as to whether current year earnings or next year’s projected “forward earnings” should be used as a sufficient statistic for long-term cashflows and equity market valuation without any further reflection.
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