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To prevent a crisis, HHI rationalized their management by disposing of non-core assets (like stocks and realestate), reducing costs, and ending extra working hours to reach a new level of financial stability. These steps have been essential to strengthening the company’s financial foundation and building up resilience.
During the dotcom bubble, the financial crisis, and the realestate bubble, what did consulting firms do? If the firms don’t have a strong balance sheet, if they foresee a potential cashflow problem, or if they have clients in particularly hard hit industries, I’d be concerned. Three prior downturns, what can we learn?
You can’t predict how the bursting of a Chinese realestate bubble plays out because it plays out in very small steps,” said Joel H. Rothstein, a partner in the Beijing office of the Paul Hastings law firm who specializes in Asian realestate. Here we are again, in another slowdown.
These securities, which were backed by real-estate mortgages, were sold to investors as a safe investment. In 1988, he purchased a large stake in the company, seeing its strong brand, steady cashflow, and long-term growth potential. However, many of the mortgages had been issued to people who could not afford them.
Sometimes it’s because they’d sooner “play” with their product than worry about the numbers and often it’s because they’re doing so well it becomes “management by checkbook,” as in, there’s plenty of money so who cares about cashflow, metrics, etc.
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When it comes time to sell however, they want to demonstrate that the business has more cashflow than the tax returns (and financial statements) show. Some of these adjustments are easily justifiable, such as adjusting the owner’s salary to market rate or if the seller owns the realestate and pays more than market rent.
Less foot traffic means cashflow of mall owners and developers are getting squeezed - a potential hazard for an economy growing at its slowest pace in decades. Major listed mall operators are also feeling the pain.
It could represent a hidden vulnerability, especially if backed by domestic currency cashflows derived from overextended sectors, such as property, or used for carry trades or other forms of speculative position-taking. Low funding costs and volatility encouraged the search for yield.
His assets are mostly realestate and it’s easy to appraise realestate. They can’t inflate their realestate assets because banks will get an appraisal. Cashflow is, however, the tricky one. The questions: How could this happen? Why did this need to (supposedly) happen? This one seems easy.
Zell discussed a wide variety of topics from the Federal Reserve rate hike, the risk of a near-term recession, realestate, energy, and various foreign investment ideas. And it's, you know, it's a little bit like realestate. I mean we made a fortune because we bought realestate at a discount to replacement cost.
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